Economy

As this year comes to a close, we look back at the economic themes and trends that shaped 2024.

Small businesses appear to be ending 2024 on a good note; we highlight four themes to watch as we head into the new year.

Consumers’ resilient momentum continued as the holiday season kicked off, but will it continue to pop in the new year?

Wage and spending growth in the West outpaced other regions this year, but decreasing rental affordability is a growing issue.

A rise in the spending growth of higher-income households may partially reflect the momentum and outlook of younger generations.

Over the past two years, Millennials and middle-income consumers have been prioritizing bargains as they deal with rising costs.

Holiday hiring looks tempered as overall job growth slows, but strong labor productivity is a bright spot for economic health.

Earnings from gig work tend to be modest, yet still provide a meaningful lift to gig workers’ spending power.

Are consumers ready for the holidays?

Older generations’ spending growth appears to be easing as retiree income slows.

As rents rise, are consumers choosing to pack their bags rather than pay more?

Though women have predominantly driven job growth over the past few years, pay disparity and childcare costs can impede progress.

Lower-income households and older generations appear to have higher shares of those living paycheck to paycheck.

As credit availability improves, access to loan financing may increase, easing small business credit card pressures.

Wage growth and home equity offer support to consumer spending, though there is less demand for higher-priced durable goods.

This year’s study explores the sentiments of small and mid-sized business owners, spotlighting women and minority business owners.

Online spending is continuing to rise, driving an earlier holiday shopping season and pressuring some malls.

As reshoring activity increases, we find small businesses in the South and Midwest are notable beneficiaries.

As retirement savings increase, discretionary spending has decreased, and caring for relatives is an additional burden for some.

Hiring demand is slowing modestly, but payroll growth remains positive with two areas of notable strength: services and the South.

Some U.S. households have seen increasingly large auto loan repayments – is it enough to let off the gas?

Strength in wages is supporting consumer spending and cushioning rising costs of auto loans. Plus, housing costs are easing.

Travel spending is slowing, but consumers are still taking vacations – especially abroad.

Households are tightening their belts and looking for value. Are you still watching?

Rising costs and a preference for experiences has younger and lower-income consumers seeking value on the clothing rack.

Rental pressures are growing for retailers, especially in the South, but also for small businesses with lower revenues.

Spending momentum has slowed and consumers are more price sensitive, but elevated deposits and positive wage growth offer support.

A rise in hidden costs of homeownership, like property insurance and property taxes, are impacting moves and related spending.

Consumers are starting to trade down to value restaurants as they face rising costs and increased financial obligations.

Service-based small businesses’ profits are higher than both the 2019 average and overall trend, though payroll growth is slowing.

Services spending kept rising in June – both at home and abroad. Is rising financial wealth leading to firmer spending growth?

Demand for electricity from AI and onshoring is rising fast. Will this be a headwind to further falls in consumers’ utility bills?

Amidst the strong labor market, job-to-job moves have moderated and the pay raises for moving jobs have dropped.

Wage and spending are strong in the West, likely boosted by AI investment and tourism, but headwinds may weigh on future growth. 

Although wage inflation and payroll costs have eased, rising rent, especially in the West, puts pressure on small businesses.

This year’s study finds a generational divide in investing, giving and preserving wealth.

Gen Z and Millennial spending is boosted by labor market strength, but slowing discretionary spending could suggest pressure.

Younger consumers are trading down to value grocers to offset more life-stage expenses and the rising costs of housing and autos.

Falling sticker prices are increasingly attractive to consumers, but rising total costs of ownership may be offsetting the appeal.

From domestic tourism to cruising, there is considerable strength in travel spending with summer travel plans taking flight.

Loan payments and services inflation are driving up operational costs, though optimism around future revenue expectations remains.

Has housing supply responded to population shifts across the U.S., especially in regions with an influx of younger generations?

Consumer spending and wage momentum continues, especially for lower-income cohorts, but property insurance costs pose risks.

BNPL (buy now, pay later) momentum is losing steam, but there is some increase in the share of heavy users.

This year’s survey explores the perspectives, aspirations and outlooks of small and mid-sized business owners across the U.S.

Gig work has recovered since last year, driven by ridesharing, with a notable increase in full time gig workers.

As inflationary pressures remain, our data suggests small businesses have turned to credit cards as a source of financing.

Growing up is expensive. Housing, cars, childcare and more are weighing on the young, but not at the expense of a rainy day fund.

Healthcare employment is below trend but easing small business spending on contract labor suggests less hiring pressure.

Spending softened in March, but continued wage growth, tax refunds, and easing rent inflation should support consumer momentum.

While the Midwest’s GDP has lagged other regions, our data suggests a recent uptick supported by a solid labor market.

Women are driving labor market growth, and we find evidence of a narrowing gender pay gap.

After a surge in employment growth in 2023, our data suggests small business hiring has come off its peak.

Consumer spending momentum is soft but stable, though there are signs lower-income households’ spending growth is slowing.

Since 2021, spending on streaming services has risen 70% and the share of households paying over $100/month has more than doubled.

Do rising childcare costs continue to pose a risk to post-pandemic gains in female employment?

After a boom in goods demand followed by a swing to services, where do retail inventories stand at the start of 2024?

Although small business credit card balances are rising, elevated deposit levels provide support.

Though winter weather softened spending in January, consumers’ sentiment is on the rise and their financial health remains strong.

The West’s high-income and single-household populations are moving out. But why?

What was in, what was out, and what’s in store for 2024.

Live events, such as the Super Bowl, stadium concerts and marathons, boost consumer spending in host cities.

As auto sales strengthen, sales of electric vehicles remain fairly soft; can hybrids bridge the gap?

Small businesses stayed steady despite headwinds in 2023, though high inflation could continue to pressure profits in 2024.

Consumers remain resilient as wage gains support low- and middle-income households, though some plan to pull back in 2024.

As the year comes to a close, we highlight some of the top economic themes and trends of 2023.

Small businesses appear to be ending 2023 on a good note, and we highlight five themes to watch as we head into the new year.

Holiday shopping and income growth supported consumer spending in November, with younger consumers more driven by promotions.

Low- and high-income household spending growth converges, high-income wage growth ticks up, and deposits remain elevated.

The South’s economy has been growing rapidly with consumer spending strong in the third quarter and optimism for next year.

Utility payments have risen nearly 20% since 2018, weighing especially on lower-income consumers and those living in the South.

The labor market slowdown, while gradual, has broadened. Job moves are also slowing and pay raises for movers are sharply lower.

Why are small business card balances rising?

Boston and Portland are attracting workers with new job prospects while those moving to Seattle are seeing the biggest pay jump.