November 2024
Small Business Checkpoint: ‘Tis the season of labor
Holiday hiring looks tempered as overall job growth slows, but strong labor productivity is a bright spot for economic health.
Key takeaways
- Bank of America data suggests that hiring over this year's holiday period could be slower than the last. Our alternative hiring analysis showed a relative decline in small business hiring in the first three quarters of this year, a signal of a potential labor slowdown ahead.
- The deceleration in job growth over the past few months is being felt more broadly, though Bank of America payroll growth remains positive. So where is hiring happening? Hiring demand in services was more than 33% higher in October than the 2019 average, and Bank of America payroll levels per small business client found restaurants and lodging were around 50% higher.
- While job growth is slowing overall, labor productivity is a bright spot. New business formation remains strong, and the growth in employer firms could mean that productivity could prove more persistent. And with small businesses accounting for nearly 70% of these job gains this year, this strength can positively drive overall economic growth.
Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.
Small Business Checkpoint is a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a real-time assessment of small business spending activities and financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America’s proprietary data. Such data is not intended to be reflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial condition or performance of Bank of America.
