Economy

In a cooling labor market, job hopping has slowed and the pay raise associated with a job change has fallen below the 2019 level.

Overall small business hiring fell for the third consecutive month in July as cost pressures and business uncertainty increased. 

Higher-income households tend to return goods the most, and, generationally, Gen Z the least, except for electronics.

Consumer spending increased again in July, but a gap is widening between lower- and higher-income households.

Total household debt is increasing, with mortgages and student loans in focus.

We find the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup boosted spending significantly in the areas where the games were played.

With outdoor activities in full swing, spending growth at campsites was strong in July and golf has been popular in the West.

Online retail shopping has been strong, supported by growing buy now, pay later adoption and the application of agentic AI.

Small business profitability increased again in June, but there are signs of a slowdown in hiring and business travel plans.

Consumer spending growth at restaurants continues to outpace groceries, but prioritizing value has emerged across both categories.

Consumer spending rebounded in June, but services spending fell for the third consecutive month. 

Tariffs and changing weather patterns complicate the outlook for property insurance. 

Reshoring could bring on a manufacturing renaissance, but the costs of tariffs and labor issues risk deterring the process.

The job market in the West is rockier than any other region, and it’s weighing on consumers’ expectations and spending.

Though a very minor share of small firms pays tariffs directly, import costs are rising for some wholesalers and retailers.

Auto costs are gaining speed as “buying ahead” decelerates, putting some consumers and parts of the industry under pressure.

While their wage growth remains positive, younger generations’ spending has decelerated and their use of buy now, pay later is up.

Geopolitics are reshaping supply chains, prompting sectors to re-evaluate the risks and benefits of reshoring and friendshoring. 

The Midwest and South see the largest population inflows and growth in mortgage payments, yet they remain the most affordable. 

Who is spending the most on our four-legged friends? 

Consumers continued to moderate spending through mid-May, especially on durables like electronics and autos. 

Despite uncertainty, more small businesses are hanging “help wanted” instead of “out of stock” signs, especially in the South.

More than 70% of consumers are expecting to travel this summer, with most Americans favoring domestic vacations.

Consumers continue to show moderate spending momentum, with most being in good financial health.

Spending on tech services was strong in Q1, though small manufacturing and retail firms lagged due to tariff-related challenges.

With economic uncertainty and “buying ahead,” retailers currently have a tough job in picking the right level of inventories.

Spending remains solid following the implementation of tariffs, with signs of continued buying ahead – especially vehicles.

While most households remain financially healthy, inflation, a slowing job market, and reliance on credit pressure a small share.

Small business profitability remains in good shape, though they cut back on discretionary spending and tapered payrolls in March.

Consumers continued spending in March, but tariffs, slowing wage growth and inflation may pose headwinds.

Demand for home services has slowed, squeezing households’ leisure hours. Can tech help them get some downtime back?

Middle-income households’ spending and wage growth is improving, but an easing job market could potentially stall growth.

Domestic tourism had strong years in 2023 and 2024. But this year looks to be off to a slower start.

New business formation and capital investment has helped bolster labor productivity, but will this continue?

Consumer resilience continues, but cost-of-living increases, slowing wage growth and unemployment fears are a headwind for some.

Small business formation and employment growth remains strong, but uncertainty is weighing on spending.

Despite strong wage growth, high cost of living is weighing on Gen Z, prompting them to spend twice as much as they are saving.

Consumers show forward momentum, but at a measured pace as they balance grocery prices, policy changes and easing wage growth.

Rising wealth can further women’s economic contributions as well as drive growth opportunities in several industries.

The labor market is heating up in parts of the Northeast, but a shrinking pool of workers could stall economic growth.

With a cold start to the year across much of the U.S., rising utility bills are further pressuring the consumer.

Though small business revenues are rising, potential tariffs and access to credit could elevate certain cost pressures.

Inspired by social media trends or pressured by rising prices elsewhere consumers, especially Gen Z, cut back on alcohol.

The financial health of consumers looks solid, though rising auto payments may be a risk if the economy deteriorates.

As more revenue streams come to fruition and as demographic engagement changes, the sports industry is adapting and growing.

The zip codes with the lowest rents are seeing the fastest increases, especially in the South and West.

Luxury spending’s decline over the past two years could be reversing, with notable growth in high-end hotels and shopping abroad.

Are shifting consumer preferences re-shaping what self-care looks like?

Women’s job growth has been rising faster than overall employment over the last two years, helping drive wage and spending growth.

With hiring 20% above 2019 levels and payrolls rising, especially in services, there are signs of small business growth ahead.

Will rising confidence and solid wage growth mean consumers will kick off the new year with momentum?

As this year comes to a close, we look back at the economic themes and trends that shaped 2024.

Small businesses appear to be ending 2024 on a good note; we highlight four themes to watch as we head into the new year.

Consumers’ resilient momentum continued as the holiday season kicked off, but will it continue to pop in the new year?

Wage and spending growth in the West outpaced other regions this year, but decreasing rental affordability is a growing issue.

A rise in the spending growth of higher-income households may partially reflect the momentum and outlook of younger generations.

Over the past two years, Millennials and middle-income consumers have been prioritizing bargains as they deal with rising costs.

Holiday hiring looks tempered as overall job growth slows, but strong labor productivity is a bright spot for economic health.

Earnings from gig work tend to be modest, yet still provide a meaningful lift to gig workers’ spending power.

Are consumers ready for the holidays?

Older generations’ spending growth appears to be easing as retiree income slows.

As rents rise, are consumers choosing to pack their bags rather than pay more?

Though women have predominantly driven job growth over the past few years, pay disparity and childcare costs can impede progress.

Lower-income households and older generations appear to have higher shares of those living paycheck to paycheck.

As credit availability improves, access to loan financing may increase, easing small business credit card pressures.

Wage growth and home equity offer support to consumer spending, though there is less demand for higher-priced durable goods.

This year’s study explores the sentiments of small and mid-sized business owners, spotlighting women and minority business owners.

Online spending is continuing to rise, driving an earlier holiday shopping season and pressuring some malls.

As reshoring activity increases, we find small businesses in the South and Midwest are notable beneficiaries.

As retirement savings increase, discretionary spending has decreased, and caring for relatives is an additional burden for some.

Hiring demand is slowing modestly, but payroll growth remains positive with two areas of notable strength: services and the South.

Some U.S. households have seen increasingly large auto loan repayments – is it enough to let off the gas?

Strength in wages is supporting consumer spending and cushioning rising costs of auto loans. Plus, housing costs are easing.