Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.
Consumer Checkpoint: Will rising food prices eat into spending?
Consumers show forward momentum, but at a measured pace as they balance grocery prices, policy changes and easing wage growth.
March 2025
Key takeaways
- Credit and debit card spending per household declined 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in February, compared to a 1.9% YoY rise in January, according to Bank of America aggregated card data, though this decline reflects the impact of the extra leap day in February 2024. On a seasonally adjusted basis, spending rose 0.3% month-over-month (MoM), suggesting some continued momentum to spending after a chilly start to the year.
- Higher-income households continue to show the strongest growth in spending, according to Bank of America internal data. In part, this reflects an acceleration in their post-tax wages and salaries, which grew around 3.5% YoY in February. At the same time, rising equity values have provided an additional tailwind from "wealth effects."
- Food prices have also been rising recently, challenging the weekly grocery trip, particularly for those with lower incomes. If prices keep rising, it seems likely consumers will continue to deploy a range of strategies, including more targeted shopping across different stores, as well as spending more at value grocery stores.
Consumer Checkpoint is a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a holistic and real-time estimate of U.S. consumers’ spending and their financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America proprietary data. Any such Bank of America proprietary data is not intended to be reflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial conditions or performance of Bank of America.
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