Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.
Retail inventories: Too little or too much?
With economic uncertainty and “buying ahead,” retailers currently have a tough job in picking the right level of inventories.
May 2025
Key takeaways
- There was a surge in imports of consumer goods into the U.S. in March, according to Census Bureau data. Does this mean retailers' inventories are set to swell?
- In our view, no. The ratio of retailers' inventories to their monthly sales was not especially high in recent data to begin with. And at the same time, consumers also appear to have been buying ahead, with Bank of America internal data showing strength in consumer durables spending in March and April.
- Moreover, Bank of America internal data on retailers' payments to transportation and shipping companies does not suggest a big ramp up in inventories. And it appears container shipments into Los Angeles are likely down in May. So we think it is possible retail inventories may actually look 'lean' in coming months.
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