Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.
The Institute Employment Report: March 2026
Payroll growth is rebounding, but wage gains remain sharply skewed toward higher income households.
April 2026
Key takeaways
- An estimate of payrolls growth based on Bank of America customer deposit account data continues to suggest a reacceleration in payrolls growth, with year-over-year (YoY) gains rising to 1.4% in March — back in line with early-2025 momentum.
- But while overall jobs growth has improved, after-tax wage growth is increasingly “K-shaped,” with higher-income households seeing wage growth of 5.6% YoY in March, versus just 1.0% and 2.0% for lower-and middle-income groups, respectively, according to Bank of America customer account data. This is the widest gap in growth rates since 2015.
- In our view, a surge in bonuses among higher-income households is likely amplifying wage dispersion early in 2026, with solid YoY growth in bonuses for higher-income households while YoY growth in bonuses for middle-and lower-income cohorts remain negative. But even if this effect fades over this year, underlying wage dynamics continue to favor the top end.
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