Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.
Job hoppers hit pause
In a cooling labor market, job hopping has slowed and the pay raise associated with a job change has fallen below the 2019 level.
August 2025
Key takeaways
- With official measures of job openings in the U.S. declining, it is important to gauge whether the number of people making job-to-job (J2J) moves is also cooling. Although the job change rate has increased since the start of the year, the estimated rate is only 2% above the 2019 average in July and has largely trended downwards since the 2022 peak of more than 26%.
- Plus, job hoppers are no longer getting a big bump in pay, with J2J pay raises having moderated to around 7% in July – more than 3 percentage points below the 2019 average level. Interestingly, the number of job hoppers who are paid on a monthly frequency has been cooling, down 0.09% in July from last year. Industries such as finance and information have a greater share of workers with this frequency of pay period, suggesting that job changes in these industries are minimizing.
- Along with a moderating J2J rate, according to Bank of America deposit account data, our estimate of the pay disruption rate was up 4.7% year over year in July, after decelerating throughout 2024. And according to BofA Global Research, job prospects are likely to remain tough for younger workers as global trade tensions heighten economic uncertainty and some sectors swiftly embrace AI, potentially crowding out entry-level positions.
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