Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.
Consumer Checkpoint: Choppy start, solid finish
Consumers ended 2025 on a strong note and tax refunds may provide a further boost to spending over 2026.
January 2026
Key takeaways
- Total credit and debit card spending per household rose 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) in December, according to Bank of America aggregated card data, up from 1.3% YoY in November. Seasonally-adjusted (SA) spending growth rose 0.5% month-over-month (MoM).
- The “K-shaped” consumer story continues, both in overall spending and on holiday items. Overall card spending rose 2.4% YoY for higher-income households and 0.4% for lower-income households. Lower-income wage growth softened in 2025, though it appears to have stabilized for now.
- Overall, consumers were price conscious last year. In fact, when making discretionary purchases, they favored smaller-ticket items rather than more expensive goods and services. For 2026, all eyes will be on whether an expected increase in tax refunds will impact discretionary spending growth. However this plays out, the labor market will remain key.
Consumer Checkpoint is a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a holistic and real-time estimate of U.S. consumers’ spending and their financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America proprietary data. Any such Bank of America proprietary data is not intended to be reflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial conditions or performance of Bank of America.
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