Economic shifts in the age of AI

Taylor Bowley

October 2025

What does AI mean for overall economic growth, productivity, and the labor market? AI-related capital expenditures, particularly in software and computing, have significantly boosted GDP growth in 2025, contributing up to 1.3 percentage points in Q2, according to BofA Global Research.
In fact, payments to technology services by small businesses rose 6.9% year-over-year (YoY) in September, with the strongest growth in manufacturing and construction sectors, according to Bank of America small business account data. This suggests that AI adoption has broadened beyond large firms and has room to run.
While AI usage shows a weak correlation with overall job growth according to BofA Global Research, white-collar sectors with higher AI adoption ─ such as finance and professional services ─ could see stronger productivity gains. Long-term projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show mixed outcomes for job impact, with some roles declining and others, like software developers, expected to grow nearly 18% by 2033.

Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.

Full analysis

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