Small Business Checkpoint: Profits growing, jobs slowing

Small business profits held steady in September, but hiring slowed and credit balances rose – signs of possible pressure ahead.

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Taylor Bowley

October 2025

Key takeaways

  • Our measure of profitability for small businesses, the inflow-to-outflow ratio, held at 1.01 in September. However, moderating deposit growth per small business client could be a sign of weaker revenue growth for small firms as payment growth outpaces, according to Bank of America small business account data.
  • Meanwhile, Bank of America's small business alternative hiring indicator dropped 7% in September from the 2024 average, with an even sharper drop of 12.9% quarter-over-quarter for services firms. Furthermore, business applications with planned wages ─ often a signal of real job creation ─ have dropped below pre-pandemic norms, pointing to labor market softness.
  • Credit card balances per small business client rose by 3% in September vs. the 2024 average, faster than the utilization rate, suggesting some firms are carrying debt forward. Even so, tightening of lending standards from banks has eased, with fewer banks reporting stricter lending to small firms than large ones, indicating that credit access remains relatively resilient.

Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.

Small Business Checkpoint is a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a real-time assessment of small business spending activities and financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America’s proprietary data. Such data is not intended to be reflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial condition or performance of Bank of America.

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