Can consumers escape inflation?

Taylor Bowley

November 2026

Consumers appear increasingly focused on value. Derived from Bank of America deposit account as well as credit and debit card spending data, our proprietary Spending Tier Composite (STC) - a proxy for trade down activity - reached its lowest level since 2021, suggesting more households are shifting spending to value tier merchants.
The ability to offset inflation differs across spending categories. Apparel and dining show clear signs of consumers trading down, but when it comes to travel, some households may be opting out of trips entirely rather than shifting to lower-cost options.
Millennials are leading the move toward value-oriented spending. Since 2022, Millennials' spending tier has fallen faster than that of Gen X or Baby Boomers, particularly in apparel and groceries, suggesting greater sensitivity to rising costs.

Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.

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