Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.
Small Business Checkpoint: In OK-shape
Small businesses face rising costs and cautious hiring, even as holiday spending and tech adoption show signs of strength.
November 2025
Key takeaways
- The largest businesses have been leading the charge in job creation, painting a picture of a “K-shaped” recovery. Within Bank of America small business account data, there has been a deviation in profitability growth between those firms of the highest and lowest revenues.
- According to Bank of America’s 2025 Business Owner Report, many business owners are approaching the next 12 months with cautious optimism, with nearly three out of four expecting revenue increases. But compared to last year, more small business owners expect sales to decrease over the next 12 months, while fewer who run medium-sized firms expect that to occur.
- With the holidays around the corner, there are crosscurrents for small businesses. On one hand, consumer spending on holiday items was off to a strong start; on the other, tariff-related costs have surged for small businesses. Despite the pressure, inventory payments per small business client were up 0.6% year-over-year in October, though seasonal retail hiring remains below last year’s levels.
Small Business Checkpoint is a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a real-time assessment of small business spending activities and financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America’s proprietary data. Such data is not intended to be reflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial condition or performance of Bank of America.
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