What lies beneath: 4 key findings on the labor market

We highlight some areas of weakness beneath the surface of a buoyant labor market.

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David Tinsley

May 2023

Key takeaways

  • The overall U.S. labor market remains strong and resilient, but is there anything going on beneath the surface that tells a different story? Using Bank of America internal data we make four key findings.
  • First, we find evidence that the rate of job-to-job (j2j) changes is slowing. Second, we see signs that the raises people are getting from switching jobs are cooling. Third, higher-income and younger workers appear to be softening most.
  • Finally, we look at movements out of employment and find that while overall outflows are broadly unchanged relative to 2019, they are becoming significantly more skewed towards higher earners.

Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.