Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.
Consumer Checkpoint: February bounces back
February spending snapped back strongly, even as wage gaps keep the K-shape firmly in place.
March 2026
Key takeaways
- Spending growth was very strong in February, according to Bank of America internal credit and debit card data. The year-over-year (YoY) growth rate rose to 3.2%, the highest in over three years. And on a seasonally-adjusted basis, card spending rose a strong 0.9% month-over-month (MoM).
- The “K-shape” in spending growth between higher- and lower-income households narrowed slightly in February, but remains very substantial — and a similarly large gap persists between higher- and middle-income households. In our view, divergence in wage growth underpins these trends and does not suggest that the “K” will go away any time soon.
- Average tax refunds have been larger for higher-income households so far in 2026. However, lower-income households saw larger boosts to discretionary categories than higher-income ones, likely contributing to the temporary narrowing of the “K.”
- Meanwhile, most consumers still remain in good financial health in regard to their credit card capacity and savings levels, though there is a continued rise in people making minimum credit card payments — which could indicate rising stress at the margins.
Consumer Checkpoint is a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a holistic and real-time estimate of U.S. consumers’ spending and their financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America proprietary data. Any such Bank of America proprietary data is not intended to be reflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial conditions or performance of Bank of America.
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