Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.
Business Checkpoint: Looking into the logistics
Profitability growth was positive in the third quarter, but logistics costs and supply chain pressures are creating challenges.
October 2026
Key takeaways
- Small and mid-sized businesses entered Q3 in relatively solid financial condition, with profitability growth up across both groups, according to Bank of America business account data. Nearly half of estimated tariff payments had been refunded by September, though the share of these refunds relative to revenue has peaked.
- In Bank of America business payments data, logistics spending growth per client was up four times as much for small than midsized firms. Additionally, distribution and inventory transactions growth per client has outpaced spending since the spring of 2025.
- Growing transportation bottlenecks are re-emerging ahead of the holiday season. Trucking capacity has tightened as driver availability remains constrained, according to BofA Global Research. This has pushed freight rates higher and driven strong transportation sector payroll growth, particularly among mid-sized businesses, according to Bank of America payments data.
Business Checkpoint is a new, regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It provides a real-time view of the financial health, opportunities and challenges facing small and mid-sized businesses across the US economy, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America's proprietary data. By analyzing activity among both small and mid-sized firms, Business Checkpoint offers timely insights into business profitability, hiring, investment and spending trends. Such data is not intended to be reflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial condition or performance of Bank of America.
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