Signs of a broadening labor market slowdown?

The labor market slowdown, while gradual, has broadened. Job moves are also slowing and pay raises for movers are sharply lower.

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David Tinsley

November 2023

Key takeaways

  • Bank of America internal data suggests the labor market is slowing. And while the slowdown is gradual, our internal data suggests that its impact has broadened.
  • There has been a rise in 'pay disruptions' in our data over 2023, which is likely consistent with rising unemployment. While at first this was a higher-income story, it now appears to be extending to middle- and lower-income cohorts. Finance, Media and Tech are the industries with the biggest rise in disruptions.
  • We also see a significant slowdown in job-to-job moves, consistent with slower hiring and people's reluctance to move against an uncertain backdrop. And for those that do take the leap, our data suggests the associated pay rise has softened, though for higher-income workers we see some signs of a strengthening in pay rises in the most recent data.

Read our full analysis for a more in-depth look at these trends.